CMS: U.S. health spending projected to grow 5.6% annually over decade

February 16, 2017

Under current law, national health expenditures are projected to grow an average 5.6% annually during 2016-2025, outpacing average projected growth in gross domestic product by 1.2 percentage points, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ Office of the Actuary reported February 15. As a result, the health share of the economy is projected to grow from 17.8% in 2015 to 19.9% by 2025.

CMS expects national health spending to grow an average 4.8% for 2016, down from 5.8% in 2015. Beginning in 2018, Medicare and Medicaid spending are projected to grow faster than private insurance spending as the population ages and uses more services. Average annual medical price growth is expected to gradually rise, from 0.8% in 2015 to 2.7% by 2025. CMS projects that 91.5% of the population will have health coverage by 2025, up from 90.9% in 2015. The CMS report was published online by Health Affairs.


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